Category: long-term developments

ETH course analysis – Despite recovery on a descent

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The Ethereum price dropped to a low of EUR 168.15 (USD 200.85) this week, then rose again to stand at EUR 207.00 (USD 247.26).

The Bitcoin code fell during the week

A downtrend that started on September 12th led to a minimum of EUR 168.15 (USD 200.85) on August 15th, a level Bitcoin code has not had since the end of July. The first interesting short-term resistance after the current triangle pattern is EUR 228.43 (USD 272.85), the first important short-term support is EUR 206.51 (USD 246.67) and Bitcoin code is currently being tested.

The developments in China as well as further global considerations regarding the regulation of ICOs led Ethereum to continue the downward trend. For a short time a support was tested that Ethereum had not had for more than a month, but the price bounced off this support. The rebound allowed the price to rise above the downward trend of the week and has since moved sideways in a downward triangle pattern.

The MACD (second panel) is slightly negative corresponding to the sideways movement and the MACD line (blue) is below the signal (orange). Currently, the signal is testing the zero line, so it can be assumed that it also slips into the negative range.

The long-term price trend for the Bitcoin code

The analysis of the movements on the 60min chart speaks bearish language like this: Is Bitcoin Code a Scam? Read This Review Before You Sign Up!. A first important support is described and tested by the current Triangle Pattern. It is at 206.51 EUR (246.67 USD). Should this be breached, a breach of the support at 168.15 EUR (200.85 USD) described by the weekly minimum would mean a resumption of the downward trend. According to the resistance of the triangle Bitcoin code pattern, which currently stands at 209.25 EUR, exceeding 228.43 EUR (272.85 USD) would mean an end to the current sideways movement. Overcoming the weekly high of EUR 266.79 (USD 318.67) would be an indication of a sustained upward trend.

Let’s start by looking at the 240min chart to assess the medium- and long-term developments:

The events of the last two weeks have led to a trend reversal: In the medium term, we are in a downward trend, which could not be broken even by the slightly positive approaches we saw on the 60min chart. Accordingly, the price has fallen below the exponential moving averages for a week or two for some time now and has only tested them sporadically so far.

The MACD is negative according to these trends, but thanks to the already mentioned rebound at the support at 168.15 EUR (200.85 USD) the MACD line is above the signal – even if both lines are just approaching each other. The RSI is bearish with 43. In the medium term the situation is bearish. The supports are the same as on the 60min chart. The most important resistance is around 245.58 EUR (293.33 USD), a rise above this level would put an end to the current downtrend.

We see that with the weekly minimum mentioned above, not only the 50% Fib retracement level was tested, but also the bullish trend since May. The price increase achieved by bouncing off this support led to a test of the 38.2% Fib Retracement level. Unfortunately, this support could not be overcome, so that currently there is concern after a second test of the uptrend. The MACD is therefore negative – both the MACD line and the signal are below zero. The RSI rose slightly after a short drop to 30, but still at bearish 36.

Overall, the long-term forecast is bearish. The most important support is described by the 38.2% fib retracement level and stands at 228.41 EUR (272.85 USD). The most important resistance at the 50% fib retracement level is EUR 193.07 (USD 230.62).